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Moscow hopes to resume talks but only on its own terms.
By: Ekaterina Zolotova
In the early
morning of May 11, when most Russians were fast asleep, President
Vladimir Putin issued a long statement on a resolution to the Ukraine
conflict. It didn’t matter that they weren’t around to hear it – the
speech didn’t appear on television schedules, and regular programming
never cut to it – because its target audience was, in no uncertain
terms, the West. The speech was the first of its kind, coming at such an
odd hour, and it coincided with the end of the V-Day ceasefire, during
which all military operations in Ukraine had been suspended.
The first chunk
of the speech summarized the diplomatic work Moscow had done during the
ceasefire. Putin noted that from May 7 to May 10, the Kremlin hosted the
leaders of China, Venezuela and Vietnam, and it held 20 bilateral
meetings with the heads of the Commonwealth of Independent States, Asia,
Africa, the Middle East, Europe and Latin America. Putin said the
government was pleased with the diplomatic turnout on such an important
and widely celebrated holiday.
The rest of the speech, however, was dedicated to the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. It included the following remarks:
- Russia has repeatedly submitted peace initiatives that Ukraine has sabotaged.
- Kyiv has not responded to Russian proposals
for a ceasefire at all and, in fact, launched a large attack right
after the V-Day ceasefire was announced.
- Russia has never refused to engage in dialogue with Ukraine, and it was Ukraine that broke off negotiations in 2022.
- Despite this, Moscow has asked Kyiv to
engage in talks directly with no preconditions. The start date would be
May 15, and talks would be held in Istanbul.
- Russia is ready to eliminate the root causes of the conflict and establish a long-term, lasting peace.
- The decision to negotiate is now Ukraine’s – and its allies’.
The speech came
only a few days after U.S. President Donald Trump demanded a 30-day
unconditional ceasefire, warning of possible new sanctions if the
agreement was violated. It also follows a report from The New York Times
that Washington had approved the transfer of 125 long-range missiles
and 100 Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine. Meanwhile, on May 10,
French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz,
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald
Tusk arrived in Kyiv for a meeting of the so-called coalition of the
willing. The Kremlin is concerned that Europe and the U.S. are
finalizing a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, which could have been an
ultimatum for Moscow on unfavorable terms. The Kremlin understands that
if the U.S. increases its support for Ukraine and imposes more sanctions
on Russia, Moscow could lose the advances it has made, on and off the
battlefield, and thus lose the war outright.
To be sure,
Russia did not agree to a 30-day ceasefire because it would not be in
Moscow's interests. But understanding that negotiations were inevitable,
the Kremlin is trying to seize the initiative to gain an advantage. It
is important for the Kremlin to maintain dialogue with the U.S., and it
is even more important to start negotiations on more favorable terms –
or, if the negotiations fail, to justify additional military action by
showing Kyiv’s intransigence. Trump apparently approved of Putin’s
speech and urged Ukraine to agree to meet with Russia in Turkey on May
15.
The choice of
Turkey was not accidental: The Kremlin is interested in reviving the
Istanbul talks of 2022, when Russia had an advantage on the battlefield.
(Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also on board.) At the time,
portions of the Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkov and Nikolaev regions
were under Russian military control, as was nearly all of Kherson.
Russia didn’t know it was about to be repelled from the capital, so it
believed it was negotiating from a position of strength.
The Istanbul
agreements called for Ukraine to adopt a neutral status. This means it
would not join NATO, foreign troops would not be deployed to its
territory, it would not develop nuclear weapons, and it would not
conduct military exercises without the consent of guarantor countries.
In return, Kyiv would have international security guarantees similar to
NATO's Article 5 collective defense clause. (Crimea and the
Russia-controlled parts of Donetsk and Luhansk were excluded from this
provision.) Russia has made clear that it does not want to return to
these provisions chapter and verse but still supports the principles
behind them. In other words, the Kremlin doesn’t want to start from
scratch; it wants to start from a position of strength, even if the
realities on the ground have changed.
For its part,
Ukraine demands that Russia declare a full, long-term and reliable
ceasefire starting on May 12. Only after that will it be ready to
negotiate.
There’s reason to
believe the Kremlin is pessimistic that talks will succeed, if they
take place at all. European leaders also do not expect any major
breakthroughs in the next four days. Macron said Putin's proposal for
direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul is "a first step, but not enough,"
noting that Russia is "looking for a way out, but still wants to buy
time.” Merz said basically the same thing. And they may have a point:
Moscow hasn’t ruled out continued military action, but continued
military action would look better if Ukraine were the one that appeared
unwilling to negotiate. And, as a matter of fact, the airspace above
Kapustin Yar, a test launch site for hypersonic missiles, has been
cleared of civilian aircraft.
One thing is
clear: Russia is not laying down its arms yet, even if it appears to be
moving in that direction. Moscow will be watching Kyiv's reactions in
the coming days, hoping to either conclude a truce on its own terms or
continue military actions, to create conditions for depriving Ukraine of
the necessary assistance to fight back. |